Markets have shown good levels of resilience since the start of the year; this also considering the persistency of several factors, including geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation, that have severely weighted on performance in 2022. Nevertheless, the growth outlook for the rest of the year remains uncertain.
In the current scenario, with rates around their highest levels in decades, bonds with a focus on quality and cash are favoured.
Certain pockets of the US and EU markets are expensive despite some phases of pullback. A vigilant stance is therefore required, also considering the implications of a potential US recession and persistent inflation, while Fed rates plateau.
Emerging markets (EM) monetary policy normalisation is at an advanced stage compared to Developed markets (DM), coupled with an expected decoupling of EM growth vs DM growth backed by strong domestic consumption in the EM world.
The current market framework comes with high uncertainty for growth and inflation, and valuation mispricing.
See the 5 themes driving markets in the weeks to come
Global investment views.
High positive inflows and increased net income
See the 4 themes driving markets in the weeks to come