The road ahead for central banks and the USD

In a low-trust world that is becoming increasingly predatory, investors should expect supply shocks to become the new normal, while economic gains remain unevenly distributed. Another consequence of a fragmenting global order is intensifying competition between countries. Yet this competition is no longer confined to trade, technology, industrial leadership or energy security; it is increasingly driven by an unrelenting search for capital, both public and private.

 

The USD bear case faces a monetary-policy test

 

As we entered 2026, we expected stretched valuations, Fed easing, and an administration increasingly intent on limiting the cost of financing a weakening fiscal position. Together, these factors were expected to gradually bring the USD back to more normal levels.

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Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management S.A.S. and is as of 29 September 2026. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the author and not necessarily Amundi Asset Management S.A.S. and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicative of future results.
 

Date of first use: 29 September 2026.

Doc ID: 5969800