Amundi’s take on Israel’s military action against Iran

On Friday morning, Israel launched multiple airstrikes targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities and ballistic missile sites. In response, Iranian missiles struck Israeli cities.

Israel chose to target Iran’s nuclear capabilities at this time because Israeli intelligence reportedly indicated that Iran was nearing a “point of no return” in its development of a nuclear weapon. While we had cautioned about the increasing likelihood of an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure—also influenced by increasing domestic political challenges within Netanyahu’s governing coalition—the timing of the assault is surprising given the ongoing negotiations with the US over a nuclear agreement with Iran.

The situation is still evolving, and the full scope of the Israeli operation is still unclear. However, we expect that the main theater of conflict will not expand beyond the region.

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Date of first use: 16 June 2025

Doc ID: 4585160