Week of 12 - 16 October 2026 | Lights and shadows from the IMF

In this edition of Amundi's Weekly Market Directions: 

  • The IMF raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1%, up slightly from July, with 3.4% projected for 2027 — driven largely by the AI investment boom. 
  • Resilience is still the key message, but it is not unlimited. The IMF suggests a shift from coping to rebuilding, with a focus on supply-side resilience, fiscal repair and price stability.
  • Looking ahead, supply resilience and policy discipline will drive growth, inflation and asset allocation. 
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Monica Defend

Monica Defend

Head of Amundi Investment Institute

In the US, AI is likely to have a sequential impact on inflation. Strong demand will push inflation higher first, while productivity gains should become more disinflationary over time. Together with geopolitical and energy pressures, this is likely to keep inflation above central bank target.

Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute

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Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management S.A.S. and is as of 19th October 2026 . Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the author and not necessarily Amundi Asset Management S.A.S. and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicative of future results.
 

Date of first use: 19th October 2026 

Doc ID: 6028288