The robust performance of the US economy in 2018 has led to the supremacy of US risk assets compared to the rest of the world.

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Two events pushed down Eurozone sovereign spreads in 2017: the French presidential election in April & May, which dissipated investors’ fears about Eurosceptic movements, and the announcement on 26 October of a smaller-than-expected reduction in ECB’s QE for 2018 (monthly purchases lowered from € 60 bn to €30bn).

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What should we expect for US credit in 2018, in a context where spreads and volatility are closing in on cycle lows? We are already in the late phase of the cycle.

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