We expect central banks to remain on the hawkish side as long as inflation expectations remain on the upside, as central banks are afraid of losing their credibility.

Valuations are now a little more attractive. However, the environment remains challenging, particularly in Europe.

The three major central banks issued restrictive signals last week. The banks have succeeded in changing the course of their monetary policies without harming the markets.

Global ESG bond markets are bound to deliver another record year of new issuance volumes, led by broad-based dynamic activity in all its major segments.

We expect a further slowing of growth in Eurozone public debt in 2022, mirroring the 2021 trend vs. 2020 which saw a peak in net issuance, while EU bond supply is likely to remain close to the 2021 level.

As the European economy is recovering from the largest economic shock of modern history, we are revising our growth and inflation assumptions to the upside.

Persistent supportive funding conditions and the improved macro picture are consistent with a current and expected benign picture for US and European default cycles, which are likely to remain on a downward trend in the coming months.

EMU-10 EGB net issuance, net of ECB QE purchases, is likely to be negative in H2 this year for three main reasons: 1) front loading of sovereign debt supply in H1, 2) roughly 60% of yearly bond redemptions still to come, and 3) ECB QE purchases to remain steadily high. The supranational debt market will keep growing remarkably, driven by NGEU EU funding, following SURE bond issues in H1, with the ECB likely to keep playing a supportive role in this segment, too.

Global HY markets sold off aggressively between February and March in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, the oil price war and the liquidity freeze in some markets.

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