Update on Ukranian crisis focusing on US economy and investment implications

By calling the war in Ukraine a «tectonic shift in European history», European leaders are giving an indication of the regime changes this war could lead to in the medium term.

The economic impact stemming from the crisis will be uneven across countries, with some economies potentially benefitting from the commodity boost and others challenged by higher inflation dynamics.

We expect inflation to trend higher across emerging and developed markets and growth to be lower than initially expected, with higher risks for Europe and in particular countries more vulnerable to sanctions and energy price dynamics.

There are multiple scenarios for the continuation of the crisis. What is certain is that volatility will persist and real interest rates will remain in negative territory for a while.

The invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops has caught Europe off guard, reminding it of the darkest hours before the Second World War.

Understanding the long-term implications of the Russian-Ukraine conflict in the regime shift in course.

Market reaction: The worst-case scenario of a full blown attack to Ukraine has materialised. It’s risk-off on Russian assets; global risk assets are under severe pressure.

Understanding the economic and investment fallout of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.