The GIV document elaborates on the latest views, convictions and outlook of our Global CIOs, different Investment Platforms and Macro-Strategy teams.

We are witnessing significant divergences in the economic outlook (we have revised down the EU and Chinese economic outlooks vs. the more resilient US economy) and in market performances.

The first month of the Russia-Ukraine war has driven volatility up across the board, though with some recent signs of stabilisation in equity markets.

We expect inflation to trend higher across emerging and developed markets and growth to be lower than initially expected, with higher risks for Europe and in particular countries more vulnerable to sanctions and energy price dynamics.

There are multiple scenarios for the continuation of the crisis. What is certain is that volatility will persist and real interest rates will remain in negative territory for a while.

The geopolitical escalation at month’s end marks a further rise in volatility. Credit spreads (IG, HY and Euro peripherals) continued to widen while equity markets corrected further.

Market reaction: The worst-case scenario of a full blown attack to Ukraine has materialised. It’s risk-off on Russian assets; global risk assets are under severe pressure.

Understanding the economic and investment fallout of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Understanding how the Amundi Inflation Phazer tool works and how it could be useful in predicting prevailing inflation regimes and adjusting multi-asset portfolios.