The flattening of the US yield curve will depend on the persistence of core inflation and on the impact of monetary tightening on growth.

TLTRO repayments and redemptions will drive incoming ECB passive QT over the next few quarters.

The first electoral round was won by former President Lula. However, the incumbent, Bolsonaro, performed better than expected.

The US Congress’s August approval of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) came as a surprise to most observers. With the mid-term elections just months away and no majority in Congress, no one expected new legislation to be passed.

The GIV document elaborates on the latest views, convictions and outlook of our Global CIOs, different Investment Platforms and Macro-Strategy teams.

LatAm’s dramatic elections calendar that landed three leftist presidents in the Andean region might be two-thirds over, but the political and policy uncertainty created by these election results is far from it.

Russia’s recent invasion of Ukraine has focused investors’ minds on the Taiwan issue and the People’s Republic of China’s potential approach to it.

The Q2 earnings season was again stronger than expected and contributed to the equity market rally up to mid-August.

The origins of inflation are not always well understood. While some economists had warned of impending inflation as early as last year, few had anticipated the dramatic shift in spending from services to goods and the effects of such a shift.