The European economy is emerging from its worst economic slump since the Great Depression. As the vaccine rollout progresses quickly across the continent, mitigation measures and travel bans are being lifted, allowing growth to revive.

The EU formally adopted in June its new objective of cutting the bloc’s greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030 versus 1990.

The disruption of global supply chains has been a wakeup call for the European Union. For years, the principle of an open and free Single Market has led to a massive transfer of industrial production and outsourcing mainly to Asia.

In the hunt for yield, some years ago European investors started to allocate part of their credit exposure to dollar assets.

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US fixed income can be a valuable source of diversification for European investors, but in the past the cost of hedging of the US Dollar exposure was high, neutralizing this benefit.

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Cyclical conditions are turning more positive for Europe.

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The Covid-19 crisis now appears to be deeper and more widespread than initially estimated by financial markets, and it is placing a huge strain on the global economy.

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When we look fundamentally at the risks and rewards in equity markets for 2020, we find that value offers better opportunities than growth as implied expectations are lower and therefore more attractive for value at this point.

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We believe we have entered a mature stage of the financial cycle amid central bank monetary policy normalisation (more advanced in the US) and decelerating economic growth globally.

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