Biden’s election momentum and financial markets

Thursday 25 June 2020

Joe Biden has a historically large lead over President Donald Trump in the polls, including in the critical electoral college vote, but that could narrow closer to the electionThe slide in Trump’s approval rating was most noticeable among senior citizens and he has not led in a single major poll so far this year, though it should be noted that polls have proved unreliable in the past few elections.

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Vignette H2 2020 Investment Outlook
01/07/2020

H2 2020 Investment Outlook - Investing during a de-freezing cycle

The Covid-19 crisis drove the global economy into an unprecedented deep freeze in the first half of 2020. The combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus will help the global economy de-freeze in H2. As was the case with the virus cycle, the recovery will be sequential and involve different regions at different times - on a ‘first in, first out’ basis - and will depend on the size of the policy response. As the global economy gradually de-freezes, investors will turn their focus back to geopolitics. The climax will be the US presidential election – the outcome of which appears increasingly open. It will influence the US vs. China dispute, which will shift from trade to technology and healthcare supremacy – and more broadly -- the new geopolitical order and the role of Europe within it. In Europe, we are monitoring the budgetary process and the recovery plan. This could redesign the future of Europe towards more sustainable and equal growth, the upcoming end of Merkel’s political era, Brexit and the response of the ECB to the German constitutional court, due in August.