- Global Investment Views - February 2020
Global Investment Views - February 2020
Friday 31 January 2020
Research / Market
Global Investment Views - February 2020 - CIO Views
At the start of the 2020s, markets continued to be dominated by geopolitical issues, with short-lived Iran tensions at the forefront initially, followed by the news regarding a phase one trade deal between the US and China. Now, growth expectations are becoming the main driver of the market. That’s why the recent volatility due to the news about the spreading of the corona virus in China is higher than in the case of US-Iran tensions, as the epidemic could harm China (and global growth) if not contained soon (not our base case at the moment). Other than this issue, recent data point to a ‘so far, so good’ assessment as Germany has avoided a recession and the Euro area is bottoming out. Inflation uptrends are materialising to some extent, but risks appear to be limited and the overall inflation outlook remains benign. Central banks are likely to continue to pause on policy changes, which should help to maintain dovish financial conditions across regions. Therefore, in the search for further growth, attention is globally moving towards fiscal measures: Japanese stimulus package; approval of 2020 Budget Laws for Indonesia, the Philippines and India; and hopes for support in Germany, the UK and broader Europe (€1tn European Green Deal).
The day after #5 - New Frontiers for Central Banks
Central Banks (CBs) are by nature more flexible than governments. Thus, they have been the most proactive in this crisis, reintroducing large-scale asset-purchase programmes financed by money creation (QE policies).
Cross Asset Investment Strategy - June 2020
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