Market Scenarios and Risks - January 2022
Wednesday 05 January 2022
We are making no change to the narrative and the probabilities of the scenarios. The central scenario assumes that Covid will become endemic with multiple, albeit manageable waves, that fiscal levers will remain significant and tied to monetary policy, and that growth will come back to potential in 2023. We assume the Omicron variant will temporarily impact the recovery in Europe.
CENTRAL & ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS (12 TO 18 MONTHS HORIZON)