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Markets have accepted the Fed’s message of higher-for-longer rates, and bond yields have drifted higher. These yield levels, coupled with a slowing economy, allow us to be positive on duration. With yields at historically high levels and inflation expected to slow, and with still-present recession risks, government bond markets offer good opportunities. In corporate credit, primary market activity has been strong and we see potential to benefit from new issue premia by favoring higher-quality parts.
The eurozone economy has stagnated over the last three quarters, although second-quarter growth was marginally positive due to strong idiosyncratic growth in one or two smaller countries. The countries more dependent on services, such as France and Spain, fared better, compared to those that rely more on manufacturing and exports, including Germany and Italy. Nonetheless, leading indicators suggest demand weakness is spreading to services. Forward-looking employment indicators, including wage offers for new jobs, also suggest some moderation in labor market strength, even though employment currently remains strong.
If the recession in the US plays out as feared, both earnings and margins would come under pressure. The fiscal boost from the government has helped consumers, but we think excess savings could dissipate. We believe markets, which are priced for perfection, don't reflect this risk. On the other hand, valuations in some pockets are expensive vs others, making this an attractive market for active management.
Amundi Funds Pioneer Strategic Income Fund
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Amundi Funds Pioneer Income Opportunities
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Amundi Funds US Pioneer Fund
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Amundi Funds US Short Term Bond
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Amundi Funds Global Equity
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Amundi Funds Pioneer US Equity Fundamental Growth
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