Short-term resilience, but no reacceleration likely in the mid term

We have markedly revised up our forecast for US growth, in particular for H1 2024. We continue to expect GDP growth to decelerate below its potential pace over the next few quarters, before recovering in 2025. Regarding inflation, although the downward trend in core consumer price index inflation has recently stalled, we think that the disinflationary process will continue, albeit along a bumpy road with stickier dynamics. 
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IT-Capturing the Momentum
06/03/2024 Investment Talks

Capturing the Momentum of a Narrowing Earnings Gap

Since early 2023, a handful of the market's top stocks, including the Magnificent Seven, have surged in earnings and valuation, and have dominated returns. Underneath the surface of today's concentrated, crowded market, sharp earnings recoveries may soon play out and structural changes may occur in many industries, creating new winning and losing stocks. Separating the potential winners from the rest of the market will be key to portfolio success over the next year, and beyond. With so much uncertainty and variability across industries and companies, we believe active management is essential to capturing the momentum of a changing market.  

June 2024 GIV
06/03/2024 Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income

Explore the broadening of the rally with Europe

In developed markets, we move to neutral from positive on Japan and we see scope for rebalancing in favor of the UK, European small caps and the US. While the US is displaying strong earnings, we believe Europe should benefit from the moderately resilient economic environment and rate cuts. In government bonds, we are positive on the US and core Europe, along with Italy. In credit, valuations in Euro investment grade appear attractive. We also look for selective opportunities across emerging markets and see oil as providing protection from geopolitical risks.

May 2024 GIV
05/08/2024 Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income

Searching for bright spots in a trickier phase

Recent inflation and growth data from the US indicates continued strength in the economy, leading Amundi and various institutions including the International Monetary Fund, to revise US growth forecasts upward. We believe current strong momentum will continue into Q2, but expect a deceleration in H2. Inflation data also points to stickier prices, with upside risks, especially around oil, from the recent geopolitical escalation, opening a difficult phase for central banks. We expect fewer rate cuts but higher uncertainty around policy actions.

*Prior to March 15, 2024, Amundi Funds Pioneer US Bond, Amundi Funds Pioneer Income Opportunities, Amundi Funds Pioneer US Short Term Bond, Amundi Funds Pioneer Global Equity, Amundi Funds Pioneer US Equity Fundamental Growth

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