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58 news articles are available

October GIV
10/05/2022 Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income

Bond Yields Now More Appealing

 Inflation remains in the spotlight: the latest US reading was concerning, causing yields to rise while equity markets tumbled. Looking ahead, we confirm the outlook of slowing US inflation, but we think central banks, including the Fed and the ECB, will remain hawkish. Meanwhile, the economic outlook could deteriorate, as the US faces an extended period of sub-par growth and the outlook for the Eurozone appears gloomier, compounded by the ongoing energy crisis.

UK Crisis
09/28/2022 Investment Talks

UK Market Turmoil Points Towards Further Volatility in Global Currencies

Investors’ focus is shifting from the poor growth/inflation mix in the UK to the extremely negative external balance picture. On September 23, the government announced an additional 0.5% of GDP in unfunded tax cuts. The reaction of UK assets recalled actions we used to see only in emerging markets. The market is giving a strong signal that it is no longer willing to provide capital to fund the UK’s external deficit position. The correlation between interest rates and the currency signals that the market is questioning the credibility of UK policymakers’ actions.

sept-cross-asset
09/12/2022 Cross Asset

Strong Earnings Helped Support the Summer Rally

We see sustainability of margins/earnings as the key driver of allocation across sectors. This leads us to an overall preference for defensives. In some cases, cyclical sectors can also offer resilient margins and profitability. Across non-defensive sectors, we believe Energy might have further upside, especially if the economic downturn proves mild. High-quality areas such as Luxury Goods are a key overweight in our view as a sector where profitability and margins are very resilient.

compass-recession-fears
08/16/2022 Investment Talks

Mind the Lag: Recession Fears Flare Too Fast

Investors expect central banks will tame inflation whatever the cost, even triggering recession if necessary. This may indeed be policymakers' approach in the short term as they seek to re-establish their credibility, but investors risk overestimating central bankers' ultimate willingness to hurt growth..  We predict that inflation will therefore be higher than many expect over the next couple of years, with important implications for asset prices. 

July - Aug Cross Asset
07/12/2022 Cross Asset

The Emerging Markets Hurdles

The greater the gap between what central bankers say and what people believe, the higher may be the cost of bringing inflation under control since significant monetary policy tightening will be needed to rein in expectations about how fast prices will rise. The current collective memory has instead been shaped by an environment where central banks were more concerned about undershooting their inflation targets and were free to act to support growth.