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The Amundi Institute is for the attention of Professional Investors, Institutional Investors, Consultants, and Intermediaries marketing to non-U.S. Persons ONLY. In the European Union, it is not for non-professional investors as defined by MIFID or in each local regulation. This website is solely for informational purposes and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation of any security of any other product or service. Any securities, products, or services referenced may not be available for sale in the US.
Markets are pricing in a rosy scenario in which economic deceleration will force the Fed to cut rates in 2023. However, we believe the Fed will stay on hold for 2023 and cut rates only in 2024. Inflation is cooling slowly, and the US economy is cooling down as well. From an equity perspective, we remain concerned about future profits, which leads us to stay defensive on equities and credit. On the fixed income side, we stay constructive on US duration and expect the US yield curve to steepen.
The current US debt ceiling was reached in January and the US Treasury warned that it would run out of cash to meet its expenditure commitments around June 1st, although a precise date is impossible to predict. The Republicans’ initial proposal asked for spending cuts to the tune of a 1% limit on the annual growth of nominal government expenditure over the next ten years. This fiscal contraction, along with a tight monetary stance, would be negative for economic growth. However, a default would be even worse for the economy.
Our assessment is that most banks are much better prepared to withstand financial volatility today than they were in 2008-9. As a result of the systematic application of much greater regulatory oversight, US banks have much higher levels of equity capital, better funding and liquidity, less leverage and much lower asset risk. With the potential for stronger supervision and regulation across the sector, we suggest investors carefully select securities from larger, well-capitalized banks with diversified business models and conservative lending strategies.
Amundi Funds Pioneer Strategic Income Fund
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Amundi Funds Pioneer Income Opportunities
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Amundi Funds US Pioneer Fund
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Amundi Funds US Short Term Bond
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Amundi Funds Global Equity
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Amundi Funds Pioneer US Equity Fundamental Growth
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