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May 2022 Cross Asset
05/11/2022 Cross Asset

A Late Cycle With a Greater Focus on Inflation

May 2022 | We are witnessing significant divergences in the economic outlook (we have revised down the EU and Chinese economic outlooks vs. that for the more resilient US economy) and in market performances. From an investment standpoint, while investors should maintain a neutral risk stance, there is room to play these divergences across the different asset classes. As the great asset repricing unfolds, investors should be ready to adjust their allocations to deal with inflation.

May 2022 GIV
05/02/2022 Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income

Looming Divergences and the Great Asset Repricing

We are witnessing significant divergences in the economic outlooks and in market performances. From an investment standpoint, while investors should maintain a neutral risk stance, there is room to play these divergences across the different asset classes. While short-term inflation may start to decelerate, the long-term view is increasingly showing that sticky inflation remains high in light of geopolitical risks and the supply chain stress amid Shanghai’s lockdown. The US economy remains solid while the Eurozone is the most exposed to stagflationary risk. We will most likely see at least a short-lived recession in the second half of 2022, triggered by Germany and Italy, while France and Spain might show some resilience.

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