The late-cycle environment continues to play out

Stocks are pricing in a rosy scenario in terms of economic growth, which has led to strong upside already this year, with some broadening of the rally evident recently. These movements are further aided by ample liquidity and robust earnings, particularly in the US.
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May 2024 GIV
05/08/2024 Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income

Searching for bright spots in a trickier phase

Recent inflation and growth data from the US indicates continued strength in the economy, leading Amundi and various institutions including the International Monetary Fund, to revise US growth forecasts upward. We believe current strong momentum will continue into Q2, but expect a deceleration in H2. Inflation data also points to stickier prices, with upside risks, especially around oil, from the recent geopolitical escalation, opening a difficult phase for central banks. We expect fewer rate cuts but higher uncertainty around policy actions.

IT-Opportunities-Catastrophe
05/07/2024 Investment Talks

Opportunities in Catastrophe Bonds

As a structurally uncorrelated source of risk and return, we believe catastrophe bonds and insurance-linked securities (ILS) may permit investors to build more diversified and resilient portfolios.  This could be particularly true now, as the rate on line (the ratio of premium paid to loss recoverable in a reinsurance contract) for private ILS formats and the cat bond market spread remain elevated and could provide attractive total yield potential.  We believe the combination of continued elevated pricing, combined with the ongoing demand for reinsurance, may present an attractive investment opportunity throughout the remainder of 2024 and into 2025.

IT-Last mile
04/23/2024 Investment Talks

Remain agile in bond selection, with an eye on last mile inflation

Though the US economy and consumers appear to have largely defied the "gravitational pull" of significantly tighter monetary policy, we continue to view the risk of a recession during 2024 as higher than normal. We expect that such a recessionary scenario would lead to significantly greater interest rate cuts, while the "no landing" scenario of more persistent inflation would delay the start of rate cuts. As developed economy central banks continue to grapple with when to start normalizing local monetary policy, now could be an interesting time for investors to strengthen their portfolios by extending the duration of their fixed income portfolios and raising credit quality and liquidity profiles while carefully weighing global opportunities.

*Prior to March 15, 2024, Amundi Funds Pioneer US Bond, Amundi Funds Pioneer Income Opportunities, Amundi Funds Pioneer US Short Term Bond, Amundi Funds Pioneer Global Equity, Amundi Funds Pioneer US Equity Fundamental Growth

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