The view that a trio of structural ruptures - geopolitical, technological and energy-related - will act as powerful drivers in the years ahead, with clear implications for elevated uncertainty, persistent inflation and sizeable fiscal deficits, was outlined in the Amundi Investment Institute’s 2026 Capital Market Assumptions, based on Q4 2025 data. Developments since then have broadly reinforced this assessment. The acceleration of artificial intelligence (AI) is likely to remain the primary engine of growth, broadening the pool of leading companies across sectors and regions.
Across asset classes, the updated CMA analysis, based on data as of 30 June 2026, indicates that fixed income should continue to offer attractive carry and provide a reliable anchor for portfolio income. Expected returns on government bonds have improved as yields have risen across the segment. The outlook for credit remains constructive, with forecasts still pointing to a positive average spread over government bonds, although this premium has narrowed. High yield credit appears less compelling, as the additional return on offer remains modest relative to the risks involved, reinforcing the case for a selective approach.
Expected equity returns over the next decade are more widely dispersed than in the previous assessment. European and emerging market equities offer return potential that is slightly below US equities in local currency terms. However, foreign exchange effects are likely to be material: once currency movements are taken into account, they enhance the relative attractiveness of European equities compared with US equities, and of emerging markets compared with developed markets, in both euro and US dollar terms. China and India also offer attractive entry points, having lagged Japan and AI-related markets during the first six months of 2026.
Alternatives continue to offer the strongest potential for absolute returns. Private equity, infrastructure and direct lending are expected to generate a premium over liquid assets with comparable risk profiles, largely reflecting compensation for their illiquidity.
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Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management S.A.S. and is as of 30/06/2026. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the author and not necessarily Amundi Asset Management S.A.S. and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicative of future results.
Date of first use: 25/08/2026
Doc ID: 5868914