News

22/10/2020 Research / Market

The day after #12 - Changing shares of labour and capital incomes: what implications for investors?

The share of national income that is distributed to labour vs. capital has fallen to historically low levels in several advanced economies, such as the United States and the United Kingdom. We believe the Covid-19 crisis, along with other factors, will trigger a rebalancing in favour of labour over the next two decades. A reversion to the long-term average ratio of labour and capital in the share of income would probably enhance social and political stability, and would better fit with a consumer-driven growth model.

21/10/2020

Time to reconsider US growth and value?

The outperformance of growth stocks over value stocks has reached record levels, as has the valuation gap.The environment for growth stocks has been ideal: interest rates have plummeted, and US technology companies have become increasingly dominant in the United States and abroad. However, we believe this ideal environment is unlikely to last. Inflation -- which has been dormant for years -- may rise as a result of stimulus measures. Historically, value has outperformed growth during inflationary periods.

19/10/2020

ECB QE Monitor - October 2020

The Eurosystem started its QE in March 2015.

13/10/2020

Emerging Markets Charts & Views - Market opportunities looking into 2021

The Covid-19 crisis and its impact on the economy (both oil and commodities dynamics and trade) have been the main drivers of the slowdown in emerging markets. Despite the significant disruption, we see signs of improvement in the virus cycle in most EM economies. China is also engineering a fast rebound thanks to massive fiscal stimulus and, most recently, improvements on the internal demand front.

13/10/2020

Building ESG momentum in US equities

US ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) investors are increasingly likely to benefit as the country’s companies close the gap with best-in-class global companies on ESG disclosure and performance. The trend towards ESG in the United States is being driven by asset owners demanding ESG integration into corporate business strategies, investors using it as a source of alpha1 , and regulators looking to formalize ESG into its rules and protocols. A growing body of empirical evidence suggests that companies with improving ESG momentum have been correlated with positive risk-adjusted returns.

09/10/2020

A civil vice presidential debate has little impact on the race

Vice President Mike Pence and Senator Kamala Harris met yesterday in their one and only Vice Presidential debate in Salt Lake City. This was the second most important milestone in the 2020 Presidential election, and early indications on the morning after the debate is that it did not change the trajectory of the race that has moved decisively in favor of former Vice President Biden. 

05/10/2020 Research / Market

President Trump’s positive COVID-19 test shakes up election, markets

President Trump announced in a tweet shortly before 1:00 a.m. on Friday October 2nd that he and the First Lady of the United States (FLOTUS) tested positive for COVID-19.  We look at the potential repercussions from this dramatic news in this Q&A.

02/10/2020 Research / Market

Cross Asset Investment Strategy - October 2020

Find the latest edition of the monthly publication of our Research Team.

02/10/2020

Advantage Biden after the first Presidential Debate

President Donald Trump and Former Vice-President Joe Biden met yesterday in their first Presidential debate in Cleveland, Ohio. This was an important milestone in the 2020 Presidential election, and the early indications on the morning after the debate are that it has changed the trajectory of the race in Biden’s favor. For Trump, it was one of his few opportunities to change the narrative of this election and define Biden.  For Biden, it was to reassure voters that he has the mental and physical stamina to handle the office of the Presidency. Polls, surveys and the investment betting markets immediately following the debate indicated Biden with a clear advantage following one of the most raucous and chaotic debates in US history.