265 news articles are available
Quantitative easing: the end of the road for pension investors?
Has central banks’ Quantitative Easing (QE) been a blessing or a curse for investors?
Global Investment Views - December 2019
In recent weeks equities rallied along with bond yields as investors reacted to the prospect of a US-China ‘phase one deal’ and fading global recession fears. The value of negative yielding bonds continued to fall, from US$17 trillion over the summer to the current US$12.5 trillion. While equities were previously overshadowed by the excessive gloominess on the global economy and earnings, markets rebounded after corporate results in the US and Europe met or exceeded low expectations, and as economic data did not show any material worsening. The mantra now seems to be ‘not so bad is the new good’.
2020 Investment Outlook - Be agile to cope with diverging scenarios
After enjoying stellar performance this year, moving into 2020, investors will increasingly ask whether the global economy will proceed towards a trade war-engineered recession or whether growth will stabilise at a low level and potentially rebound, meaning the cycle could extend even further.
Renewed expansion of Fed balance sheet will not be QE but will affect markets
On 30 October the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate for the third time this year, while hinting at a pause over the next few months. The rate cut followed the Fed’s announcement on 11 October that it will address a liquidity shortage causing volatility in the overnight loan market by buying $60 billion per month in Treasury bills until Q2 2020 and support overnight repo operations through January 2020.
Asset Class Return Forecasts - Q4 - 2019
Our medium-term baseline scenario is that of a late business cycle slowdown supported by the dovish U-turn of central banks. We expect economic growth to move below potential for most developed economies in 2020, a trend that will be further exacerbated in 2021 by a deteriorating cyclical environment and still anaemic global trade. Nevertheless, growth is expected to stay in positive territory.
A Brexit deal: probably, but not just yet
Risks of a no-deal Brexit have receded materially over the past few weeks, implying that the Bank of England is now more likely to keep its monetary policy on hold, in a wait-and-see mode over the next year. UK nominal yields have already removed most of the no-deal risk, having repriced up by almost 30bps from their October lows, and are seen moving more in line with the global trend in nominal rates going forward.
Cross Asset Investment Strategy - November 2019
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China’s growth tremors: risks, opportunities and the road ahead
Soft landing and light policy support. In terms of Chinese growth, we see the rate continuing to slow. Chinese GDP growth rose 6.0% in the third quarter of 2019 (Chinese authorities forecasted a range of 6.0%-6.5% YoY), the slowest pace since the early 1990s. Moving into 2020, we do expect that the new growth target will be set around 6.0%, if not lower, at between 5.5% and 6.0%, and our current forecast is confirmed at 5.8% YoY. Exports unsurprisingly have been weak, private capex has slowed notably, and public infrastructure has not picked up as expected. Going forward, we expect public infrastructure capex to accelerate, and the tight real estate policy stance to potentially moderate. Chinese policy mix remains stimulative, though in a very limited way so far and far away from the massive stimulus implemented in recent years.
High Yield: deep diving needed due to a more uncertain outlook
Global growth has been slowing since 2018, due to a combination of factors, including trade wars – with consequently slower global trade -- past US Fed tightening, and rising geopolitical risks. This slowdown has become more pronounced in the last couple of quarters, especially in the most open economies, such as Europe and some EM, while the US economy has remained relatively more resilient despite losing momentum.