Keeping up with our Investment Outlook for 2022

Tuesday 08 February 2022

Cross Asset

   

Keeping up with our Investment Outlook for 2022

February 2022 | The remainder of 2022 will likely test the effectiveness of the policies deployed since the peak of the pandemic; fiscal and monetary policies are set to tighten up at a time when the growth/inflation mix is becoming more challenging and there is less room for policy flexibility. Fundamentals will be key to disentangling divergent trends in a year that started on a much weaker footing than many expected.

01 |  Featured Topic: Developed markets will face the challenge of retuning to normality. Fiscal and monetary policies will tighten as the growth/inflation mix is becoming more challenging. Fundamentals will be key to disentangling divergent trends.

02 | Thematic: Real interest rates in the US and Europe have reached negative levels that are unprecedented in recent history. The journey back to zero could be a key driver of cross-asset relative returns and volatility.

03 | Global Research: While some impacts of Omicron look similar across countries, policy reaction has not been uniform, leading to regional disparities.

2022 Feb Cross Asset - Keeping up with our 2022 Outlook

Important Information

The MSCI information may only be used for your internal use, may not be reproduced or re-disseminated in any form and may not be used as a basis for or a component of any financial instruments or products or indices. None of the MSCI information is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such. Historical data and analysis should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance analysis, forecast or prediction. The MSCI information is provided on an “as is” basis and the user of this information assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. MSCI, each of its affiliates and each other person involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating any MSCI information (collectively, the “MSCI Parties”) expressly disclaims all warranties (including, without limitation, any warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, timeliness, noninfringement, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose) with respect to this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall any MSCI Party have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential (including, without limitation, lost profits) or any other damages. (www.mscibarra.com). Indices are unmanaged and their returns assume reinvestment of dividends, and unlike Fund returns, do not reflect any fees or expenses. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management US (Amundi US) and is as of February 8, 2022. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the author and not necessarily Amundi US and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicative of future results. Amundi Asset Management US is the US business of the Amundi Asset Management group of companies.

Other news

March 2024 Cross Asset
03/15/2024 Cross Asset

Six questions concerning the weakness behind US resiliency

 In January we had some upside surprises, encompassing import prices, producer prices, both the headline and core Consumer Price Index, and the Personal Consumption Expenditure deflator. We think prices were in part boosted by seasonal factors which are not fully accounted for in the usual seasonal adjustment. The weakness in January retail sales and a downward revision of November and December readings signal, in our opinion, a potential downshift in consumer spending. Credit card and auto loan delinquency rates continue to rise according to the New York Fed report; consumption so far has been supported by the depletion of excess savings but US households have also taken on more debt, and some of those loans are becoming delinquent, especially credit card and auto loans, which are now above pre-COVID levels.

February 2024 Cross Asset
02/13/2024 Cross Asset

Japan equity: top performer in 2023; remains attractive option for 2024

Three key arguments support the Japanese market: (1) A recovery in profits (2) A strong incentive from the Tokyo Stock Exchange for companies to improve their capital efficiency and (3) The shift out of deflation is boosting a market rerating. The risks to these positive arguments are mostly linked to the yen. A strong comeback by the yen, should global equity volatility increase sufficiently in 2024 to encourage the unwinding of carry trades, would weigh on the performance of Japan's equities in local currency It would penalize profits and, everything else being equal, slow the process of increasing inflation, weighing on valuations at the same time.