May 2024 | Recent inflation and growth data from the US indicates continued strength in the economy, leading Amundi and various institutions including the International Monetary Fund, to revise US growth forecasts upward. We believe current strong momentum will continue into Q2, but expect a deceleration in H2. Inflation data also points to stickier prices, with upside risks, especially around oil, from the recent geopolitical escalation, opening a difficult phase for central banks. We expect fewer rate cuts but higher uncertainty around policy actions.
01 | Key features of this cycle are small business vulnerability to high rates and low-income households fragility.
02 | Rising geopolitical risks will likely affect overall market visibility, and is increasingly relevant for oil prices
03 | Asian economies appear more resilient, more autonomous, and driven by regional forces.
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