Emerging markets have evolved significantly over recent decades, and we see strong opportunities in those that are supply-chain winners, commodity exporters, or supported by credible policy frameworks. Investors should also look for sources of diversification* away from AI, such as exposure to natural resources linked to the energy transition. Nevertheless, caution is needed where dollar sensitivity is high and external balances are weak.
At Amundi, we believe that emerging markets are set to remain a key engine of global growth, supported by favourable technical factors and a resilient growth differential that continues to outpace developed markets. This is despite the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on prices across parts of this large and heterogeneous universe.
China’s economy is still split between resilient export growth and subdued domestic demand. While credit impulse is expected to improve, helped by export-led liquidity inflows and spending ahead of the 15th Five-Year Plan1, earnings revisions are likely to stay weak and profitability is low. Opportunities are likely to lie in the technology and internet sectors, supported by China’s push towards broader adoption across the economy. In AI, the country is strong in deployment and industrial scaling, underpinned by industrial capacity, state support, energy access and bargaining power in critical materials, although it still lags in advanced logic chips.
India continues to be one of the strongest long-term growth stories in emerging markets, with growth forecast to average 6.6% in 2026, robust earnings, less stretched near-term valuations and inflation remaining within the target range. However, its heavy dependence on imported energy leaves it vulnerable to inflationary pressures. India is not currently benefiting from the AI cycle, as it is not a hardware powerhouse, although it remains important in services and downstream adoption.
Latin America is split between commodity exporters, such as Brazil and Colombia, which may benefit from energy supply disruptions, and importers such as Chile and Peru. The region also offers exposure to natural resources linked to the energy transition, while its limited AI exposure makes it a useful source of diversification*.
In Brazil, growth has accelerated, supported by above-inflation increases in the minimum wage and pensions, income tax reform and a strong harvest. Earnings and profitability are robust, and the gradual easing cycle should continue to support economic activity.
Latin America: valuations are attractive
Relative valuations: EM LatAm/DM
| EM | Selective, with opportunities driven mainly by technology |
| China | Headwinds keep China neutral, with selective potential in AI and technology |
| India | Easing oil pressure could support Indian equities |
| Latin America | Positive on commodity exporters |
Source: Amundi Investment Institute Mid-Year Outlook 2026, “Power of endurance”, June 2026.
* Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss.
Views and opinions are as of end June 2026 and are subject to change without prior notice
1 15th Five-Year Plan: China’s next five-year policy framework, covering 2026–2030, which is expected to shape capital allocation towards strategic sectors such as technology, infrastructure, energy security and industrial modernisation.
Marketing material for professional investors only
Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management S.A.S. and is as of 20 July 2026. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the author and not necessarily Amundi Asset Management S.A.S. and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicative of future results.
Date of first use: 20 July 2026
Doc ID: 5728517
