We see higher inflation, geopolitical volatility and USD debasement as key risks. Investors should consider a broader protection toolkit for their portfolios, including gold, FX, alternative investments and hedging strategies. We continue to foresee a potentially softer US dollar relative to EM and commodity FX. Demand for gold, as a reliable store of value, is expected to increase further, supported by limited mine supply and strong buying by EM central banks.
While we do not expect a repeat of the 2022 shock, we believe price pressures are becoming more structural and less predictable. Geopolitical fragmentation, supply disruptions, along with stronger demand for commodities linked to key themes such as AI, infrastructure and the energy transition are contributing to a more persistent inflation backdrop.
We expect inflation to remain elevated throughout the rest of 2026 before gradually easing from Q2 2027. Although this is not an extreme scenario, it is significant enough to influence central bank policy, market dynamics and asset performance.
Inflation forecasts impacted by the energy shock
The investment implications are significant. A more hawkish monetary policy stance is likely to keep rate volatility elevated, with bonds term premia evolving in a less linear way. As a result, bonds may be less effective at diversifying* equity risk.
Build to endure – and thrive
"Building portfolios for a world where money is political, inflation is more volatile, and concentration is more expensive will be key.
In this new regime, the best portfolios can withstand different scenarios: they need to be diversified* across currencies, invested in real assets and gold, and explore equity sector opportunities and structural themes."
At the same time, continued shortages of certain commodities and minerals, together with structural demand for AI and infrastructure development, also linked to the energy transition, should support selected real assets and inflation-sensitive exposures. Strong central bank buying, especially from emerging markets, together with limited mine supply, should drive gold prices up.
| Gold | Steady demand should support prices and drive them higher |
| Selected base metals | Strong demand, with an expected supply shortfall ahead |
| Emerging market currencies | Positive on a cautious basis, although the USD is a risk factor |
Source: Amundi Investment Institute Mid-Year Outlook 2026, “Power of endurance”, June 2026.
* Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss.
Views and opinions are as of end June 2026 and are subject to change without prior notice
Marketing material for professional investors only
Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management S.A.S. and is as of 20 July 2026. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the author and not necessarily Amundi Asset Management S.A.S. and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicative of future results.
Date of first use: 20 July 2026
Doc ID: 5728517
