Wednesday 01 March 2023
Investment Talks
March 2023 | In the year since the Ukraine War began, the geopolitical landscape has changed significantly. NATO has re-established itself as the West's foremost defense organization and is expanding as a direct consequence of the conflict, as shown by Sweden and Finland's recent efforts to join. Germany, now one of the biggest defense spenders in Europe, is no longer sitting on the sidelines when it comes to military decision-making. All across the continent, defense spending as a share of GDP has increased significantly. Meanwhile, a surprising number of countries are refusing to condemn Russia and are enjoying new importance on the global stage. Nuclear power and new energy sources are also hot topics.
01 | The West's recent decision to send battle tanks to Ukraine increases the risk of a direct escalation with the West, while the likelihood of a protracted war remains somewhat higher.
02 | As the battle intensifies with a new Russian offensive underway, it is unlikely that either side will decisively gain the upper hand in the near term (4-6 months).
03 | The economic impact on Ukraine has been devastating, with over 5 million people displaced and a collapse in GDP. Estimates of reconstruction costs range from USD $350-$750 billion and are still rising.
Important Information
Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management US (Amundi US) and is as of March 1, 2023. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the author and not necessarily Amundi US and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicative of future results. Amundi Asset Management US is the US business of the Amundi Asset Management group of companies.
In 2022, Amundi did more than resist in a difficult context and continued to develop, thanks to the growth drivers of its Ambitions 2025 plan
The massive inflows into ESG funds in recent years have led to market crowding and potentially unreasonable valuation premiums for “ESG Leaders,” or companies with the highest relative ESG ratings. In the US, that group of companies is disproportionately comprised of asset-light, high-growth companies that were able to embrace ESG policies and related disclosures relatively easily. We believe the shift from growth to value will sustain itself for years, and that by incorporating forward-looking ESG analysis, investors can identify future ESG Leaders—or “ESG Improvers”—in the value side of the US stock market.
