August 2023 | From Q1 through Q3 of 2022, the municipal bond market experienced a sell-off unprecedented in over 40 years, with the Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index falling more than 12%. Since that time, the market has recovered somewhat, returning 6.42% from 9/30/2022 through 8/10/2023. Much of the 2021/2022 sell-off was driven by macro factors such as persistent inflation and the US Federal Reserve’s aggressive measures to tame it, while some of the pain was self-inflicted as investors hit the panic button – leading to over $115 billion of outflows. In our opinion, very little, if any, of the sell-off was due to fundamental concerns, and investors should consider this potential opportunity.
01 | After a historic sell-off and only a partial recovery, we believe strong fundamentals support a positive outlook for municipal bond markets.
02 | We believe that high rainy day fund balances, federal support, and a lack of leveraging have left many state and local governments in a strong position.
03 | Historically, tax exemptions have tended to become more valuable with higher levels of interest rates.
Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management US (Amundi US) and is as of July 31, 2023. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the author and not necessarily Amundi US and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicative of future results. Amundi Asset Management US is the US business of the Amundi Asset Management group of companies.
