US High Yield Market Outlook & Positioning: Jan 2024
US High Yield Market Outlook & Positioning: Jan 2024
Friday 12 January 2024
Investment Talks
US High Yield Market Outlook & Positioning: Jan 2024
January 2024 | Strong fourth-quarter returns reduced US high yield spreads from 403 basis points over Treasuries at the end of the third quarter to 339 basis points at yearend. Generating positive performance with spreads at these levels is much more challenging than at the long-term average spread of 537 basis points since yearend 1996. Of course, positive performance can also potentially be generated from falling Treasury bond yields. The case for falling Treasury yields currently is built on the depth and cadence of Fed rate cuts, which we believe will be a function of decreasing service sector inflation and how much the US economy slows. Additionally, we continue to be concerned about defaults.
01 | Fourth-quarter high yield index performance was strongly positive, with a major rally in November and December offsetting October’s weak performance.
02 | Inflation data continued to drive the markets: In contrast to earlier in 2023, declining rather than increasing inflation swung the markets to gains.
03 | It now appears the Fed’s “higher for longer” stance was about keeping bond yields high to slow the economy instead of a true commitment.
Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management as of December 31, 2024 . Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the [author] and not necessarily Amundi Asset Management and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product or service. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Amundi US is the US business of Amundi Asset Management.
