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Latest Research and Insights
07/17/2024
Research / Market
Will productivity turn global growth around?
Global growth has been on a secular decline since around 2000, with a more pronounced decline following the Global Financial Crisis. To explain this, economists typically cite the sizeable and broad-based slowdown in Total Factor Productivity Growth, which measures how efficiently labor and capital inputs are used to produce output. Looking back over longer periods, there were strong advances in productivity after WW2 in the advanced economies in the 1970s to the 90s, but since around 2000, there has been a broad-based slowdown. If these trends continue, global growth over the next decade will likely be sub-3%, compared to just under 4% in the two decades before the pandemic, even before considering recent adverse developments such as global economic fragmentation, increasing security concerns and the transition to net zero. In this paper, we analyze the contributing factors and economic risks.
07/15/2024
Investment Talks
US High Yield Market Outlook & Positioning
Second-quarter returns were positive but uncompelling as not offering a premium to cash. Several of the economic indicators we monitor are indicating softer growth may lie ahead. Although we identify multiple positive factors for high yield, valuations are challenging. With spreads tight and the economy likely to slow, we are positioning portfolios defensively in anticipation of spread widening.
07/12/2024
Cross Asset
Mid-year outlook: It's all about confidence
In the aftermath of last year's global inflation surge and the subsequent tightening of monetary policies, the economic outlook now looks increasingly fragmented. The US is slowing down, the European Union is gradually recovering, China is in a controlled and policy supported slowdown, and countries such as India are experiencing strong growth. On the inflation side, price pressures are more persistent than expected, but gradually normalizing, allowing major central banks to start cutting rates. We believe investing will require confidence in the search for an asset allocation that can withstand different scenarios, with markets in some areas being priced for the best despite uncertainty stemming from geopolitical risks and the upcoming US elections.
Products and Investment Ideas
Dynamic Markets Agile Thinking
We anticipate fundamental market shifts in 2024 resulting from global dynamics and geopolitical events, and continue our agile emphasis on value, quality and growth across asset classes.
Global Opportunities Shift
Look beyond near horizons to pockets of resilience and change in a transitioning economy.
Bonds Take Center Stage
Rate cuts in 2024 may be the catalyst for reducing portfolio risk by moving allocations to longer-term, higher-quality bonds.
Momentum for Quality Accelerates
Consider shifting equity holdings away from concentration risk by infusing quality across cyclicals, defensives and industries primed for the next-stage economy.
Consider Low- or Uncorrelated Allocations
Market volatility is an expected undercurrent in 2024, and alternatives to traditional assets may offset the potential downside.
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