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Insights
74 news articles are available
07/22/2024
Investment Talks
Biden's exit from the presidential race opens a phase of uncertainty
Market reaction to Biden's announcement has been muted at the time of writing, with a fall in the US dollar in early trading on Monday (July 22nd), a marginal movement in 10-year US Treasuries, and an upward trend in equity futures. In terms of the implications on markets, the election outcome is still highly uncertain. It is too early to define a potential "Harris trade," but even to have a specific trading strategy for a potential Trump 2.0 administration, as there is ideological uncertainty regarding its goals and policies. There are also significant ideological clashes that the Trump administration would need to address, such as the approach towards China, inflation, tariffs, fiscal expansion and the desire for a weaker dollar.
07/17/2024
Research / Market
Will productivity turn global growth around?
Global growth has been on a secular decline since around 2000, with a more pronounced decline following the Global Financial Crisis. To explain this, economists typically cite the sizeable and broad-based slowdown in Total Factor Productivity Growth, which measures how efficiently labor and capital inputs are used to produce output. Looking back over longer periods, there were strong advances in productivity after WW2 in the advanced economies in the 1970s to the 90s, but since around 2000, there has been a broad-based slowdown. If these trends continue, global growth over the next decade will likely be sub-3%, compared to just under 4% in the two decades before the pandemic, even before considering recent adverse developments such as global economic fragmentation, increasing security concerns and the transition to net zero. In this paper, we analyze the contributing factors and economic risks.
07/15/2024
Investment Talks
US High Yield Market Outlook & Positioning
Second-quarter returns were positive but uncompelling as not offering a premium to cash. Several of the economic indicators we monitor are indicating softer growth may lie ahead. Although we identify multiple positive factors for high yield, valuations are challenging. With spreads tight and the economy likely to slow, we are positioning portfolios defensively in anticipation of spread widening.
07/12/2024
Cross Asset
Mid-year outlook: It's all about confidence
In the aftermath of last year's global inflation surge and the subsequent tightening of monetary policies, the economic outlook now looks increasingly fragmented. The US is slowing down, the European Union is gradually recovering, China is in a controlled and policy supported slowdown, and countries such as India are experiencing strong growth. On the inflation side, price pressures are more persistent than expected, but gradually normalizing, allowing major central banks to start cutting rates. We believe investing will require confidence in the search for an asset allocation that can withstand different scenarios, with markets in some areas being priced for the best despite uncertainty stemming from geopolitical risks and the upcoming US elections.
07/01/2024
Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income
Inflation trends, central banks and geopolitics to drive markets
In addition to central banks' policies and inflation trends, we believe domestic politics and their impact on international relations will be important determinants of financial markets and economic direction. Our economic outlook is relatively robust, but valuations are tight in some areas of risk assets, allowing us to stay slightly positive on equities overall. However, we reduced our stance slightly in developed market equities and believe investors should consider building protection in some areas here. In bonds, we are constructive on US duration and core Europe, while we maintain our cautious stance on Japan. In corporate credit, EU investment grade is our favorite area.
06/07/2024
Research / Market
Biden vs Trump: high stakes in US elections
The US election rematch between President Biden and former President Trump will focus market attention on their respective agendas. There is a range of potential economic and foreign policy changes that could emerge in their second term, as well as the repercussions for financial markets. The candidates' foreign policy agendas could lead to a range of outcomes. An escalation of protectionism, particularly higher tariffs, may provoke retaliation. In this paper, we assess five policy areas based on the candidates' current comments: foreign policy, trade, taxes, immigration and energy. While rhetoric may not always translate into action, stated policies offer valuable insights into the two candidates' thinking.
06/03/2024
Investment Talks
Capturing the Momentum of a Narrowing Earnings Gap
Since early 2023, a handful of the market's top stocks, including the Magnificent Seven, have surged in earnings and valuation, and have dominated returns. Underneath the surface of today's concentrated, crowded market, sharp earnings recoveries may soon play out and structural changes may occur in many industries, creating new winning and losing stocks. Separating the potential winners from the rest of the market will be key to portfolio success over the next year, and beyond. With so much uncertainty and variability across industries and companies, we believe active management is essential to capturing the momentum of a changing market.
06/03/2024
Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income
Explore the broadening of the rally with Europe
In developed markets, we move to neutral from positive on Japan and we see scope for rebalancing in favor of the UK, European small caps and the US. While the US is displaying strong earnings, we believe Europe should benefit from the moderately resilient economic environment and rate cuts. In government bonds, we are positive on the US and core Europe, along with Italy. In credit, valuations in Euro investment grade appear attractive. We also look for selective opportunities across emerging markets and see oil as providing protection from geopolitical risks.
05/16/2024
Cross Asset
Short-term resilience, but no reacceleration likely in the mid term
We have markedly revised up our forecast for US growth, in particular for H1 2024. We continue to expect GDP growth to decelerate below its potential pace over the next few quarters, before recovering in 2025. Regarding inflation, although the downward trend in core consumer price index inflation has recently stalled, we think that the disinflationary process will continue, albeit along a bumpy road with stickier dynamics. The Fed will still be in a position to pivot towards rate cuts and we expect 75 bps of cuts in 2024 (vs 40 bps by markets) as: (1) monetary policy remains restrictive and will become more restrictive as inflation declines; (2) growth will slow down; and (3) recent inflation data have not altered our year-end projections.
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