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Insights
84 news articles are available
12/06/2022
Investment Talks
Weathering the Storm in US Equities
Quality factors may signal the potential for outperformance.
12/05/2022
Investment Talks, Fixed income, Equity, Perspectives
Investment Outlook 2023: Some Light for Investors After the Storm
We predict that 2023 will be a two-speed year, with plenty of risks to watch out for. Bonds are back, market valuations are getting more attractive, and a Fed pivot in the first part of the year could trigger interesting entry points. We expect global growth to slow significantly, with several countries across both developed markets and EM suffering stagnation, while others may face a slowdown at best.
12/02/2022
Perspectives
The Continuing Case for US Value
Today’s investing environment is characterized by higher normalized inflation, higher supply-constrained commodity costs, labor shortages and quantitative tightening. We believe these are primary conditions for the potential outperformance of value over growth, and that this cycle’s transition has likely only just begun. Furthermore, secular changes of value vs. growth are best measured in quarters, or even years; therefore, we do not see short-term rallies of growth stocks indicative of a larger long-term trend.
11/30/2022
Cross Asset
Defensive Asset Allocation Extends into 2023
The economic backdrop foreseen for the next 12 months suggests that the ongoing market correction will continue through the first half of 2023. In the second half of the year, we expect some of the headwinds to abate due to lower price pressures and a hold on interest rate rises. We believe this will support a gradual shift from a defensive stance, with its tilt towards gold, investment grade credit and government bonds, to increased risk exposure through developed market equity and high-quality credit.
11/27/2022
Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income
A Relief Rally, Excess Optimism Overdone
Markets have seen some recent relief in a year that overall is likely to be remembered as among the most challenging for investors. This recent market move has been supported by an alignment of stars on various fronts: (1) US inflation on a downward path, wherein we believe the market rally and the exuberance is excessive, as the Fed will remain focused on the inflation target and it is too early to claim victory there; (2) The earnings season was bad but not as bad as feared; (3) China’s COVID-19 policy relaxation, which has happened earlier than expected, but full reopening will be in 2024; and (4) Geopolitical uncertainty, with regard to which there has been some pause after elections – in the US, the mid-terms saw no major surprises and were quickly digested by the market, which reacted well to a divided government that should deter populist policies.
11/10/2022
Investment Talks
US Midterm Elections: No Red Tide
We argue that part of reason for the fairly muted response by markets is due to the expectation that a Republican takeover of the House would lead to a divided government. Our analysis has shown that under this scenario, the S&P 500 has rallied approximately 13.5% on an annual basis compared with an all-Democratic government, which has seen the S&P 500 rally by about 10%. We have also seen an outperformance in ten-year Treasury returns, with a divided government seeing it rise about 8%, while a one-party Democratic rule has seen ten-year Treasury returns rising only about 1%.
11/04/2022
Cross Asset
The Fed Shrinks its Balance Sheet
As part of its fight against elevated inflation, the Fed has raised its key rates very rapidly in 2022 and in June began to shrink its balance sheet by non-reinvesting a portion of its maturing agency mortgage-backed securities and Treasury securities. Recently, the cost of the Fed’s liabilities has increased sharply and outpaced the earnings on its assets. These “losses” could grow if the Fed continues to raise its key rates and if it maintains them at a high level for some time to come.
11/03/2022
Investment Talks
Seeking Yield and Potential Returns with Flexible Multi-Asset Investing
Historically, a balanced portfolio consisting of a 60 percent allocation to stocks and 40 percent allocation to traditional bonds ("60/40"), has represented the model allocation used to balance risk. However, recent market conditions are creating a myriad of less familiar challenges, and may render this "60/40" approach obsolete. A flexible multi-asset strategy can capture opportunities across a much broader array of asset classes, including other non-traditional fixed income instruments less sensitive to rate changes, and can help investors adjust exposures toward assets with the most desirable characteristics.
11/02/2022
Investment Talks
Recovering from a Muni Massacre: Three Reasons to Remain Hopeful
Despite the unprecedented recent municipal bond market sell-off, we believe there are reasons to be optimistic about the outlook for municipal bonds. Much of this year's sell-off has been driven by macro factors such as persistent inflation and the US Federal Reserve's aggressive measures to tame it; and some of the pain has been self-inflicted, as investors hit the panic button, leading to over $100 billion of outflows from the municipal bond space through October of 2022. In our opinion, very little, if any, of the sell-off is due to fundamental concerns.
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