Insights

Is it Time to Add Duration to Fixed Income Portfolios?

The real federal funds rate must be positive—one indicator of restrictive financial conditions--in order to control inflation.  The market is anticipating a positive real federal funds rate in late 2023, suggesting that now is an appropriate time to add duration to fixed income portfolios, and that a 60%/40% equity/bond allocation is appropriate for prudent investors.

A (Stag?)flationary Tantrum: Assessing the Current Market Sell-off

We are entering a tough phase of the regime shift, as the risks over economic growth add to the already hot inflationary backdrop. This means that stagflation fears will continue to drive the market and risk assets are likely to remain very volatile, particularly the most indebted companies and those with still excessive valuations.

June FOMC Meeting: Fed Worried About Inflation Expectations

On 15 June, the Fed hiked the Fed funds rate by 75 basis points (bp), to 1.50-1.75%, the first 75bp rate rise since November 1994. Chair Jerome Powell confirmed that recent readings regarding consumer inflation and inflation expectations caused committee members to realize a hike of that size was necessary.

A Look Under the Surface of the Q1 Earnings Season

The age of the 'Great Coincidence' in the policy mix is over. Budget deficit reductions are near, and will be accompanied by diminished household savings and greater pressure on corporate profits in light of wage negotiations. The widespread belief that fiscal spending is effectively unlimited is going to be severely tested. On the monetary side, we're witnessing the end of ultra-cheap money. Central banks have had to hike rates and drain liquidity in this time of looming stagflation, but will maintain a benign-neglect tilt and allow inflation to run to preserve growth.

Tech Sell-Off and Bond Temptation

High inflation, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, slowing economic momentum and the COVID-19 lockdowns in China are causing volatility in the markets. This is happening at a time when forward earnings multiples have contracted from the levels seen last year, amid higher inflation and rates expectations. Increasing stagflationary risks and still-present geopolitical tensions suggest investors should  maintain or even increase hedges.

A Late Cycle With a Greater Focus on Inflation

We are witnessing significant divergences in the economic outlook (we have revised down the EU and Chinese economic outlooks vs. that for the more resilient US economy) and in market performances. From an investment standpoint, while investors should maintain a neutral risk stance, there is room to play these divergences across the different asset classes. As the great asset repricing unfolds, investors should be ready to adjust their allocations to deal with inflation.

May FOMC Meeting: 50bp Interest Rate Hike is Bullish for Markets

Looming Divergences and the Great Asset Repricing

We are witnessing significant divergences in the economic outlooks and in market performances. From an investment standpoint, while investors should maintain a neutral risk stance, there is room to play these divergences across the different asset classes. While short-term inflation may start to decelerate, the long-term view is increasingly showing that sticky inflation remains high in light of geopolitical risks and the supply chain stress amid Shanghai’s lockdown. The US economy remains solid while the Eurozone is the most exposed to stagflationary risk. We will most likely see at least a short-lived recession in the second half of 2022, triggered by Germany and Italy, while France and Spain might show some resilience.

French Election: Markets Complacent for Macron Victory, but Game is Not Yet Won

President Macron is leading in the polls, but an upset victory by Le Pen would significantly change policy in France. Markets are currently complacent in anticipation of a Macron victory, but a tightening race will command some degree of market volatility in the coming weeks, adding to a complex landscape in Europe.  The prospect of a European recession is another key issue, and our tactical view is that  US equities are in better shape than  European ones. This has nothing to do with the French election, but with the broader macroeconomic and geopolitical situation, as Europe has been hardest hit by the conflict in Ukraine.