Weekly Market Monitor

A weekly summary of global market activity, including performance of key equity and fixed income indices, currency and commodity information, bond yields and spreads and key economic indicators.

 

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February 2024 Cross Asset
02/13/2024 Cross Asset

Japan equity: top performer in 2023; remains attractive option for 2024

Three key arguments support the Japanese market: (1) A recovery in profits (2) A strong incentive from the Tokyo Stock Exchange for companies to improve their capital efficiency and (3) The shift out of deflation is boosting a market rerating. The risks to these positive arguments are mostly linked to the yen. A strong comeback by the yen, should global equity volatility increase sufficiently in 2024 to encourage the unwinding of carry trades, would weigh on the performance of Japan's equities in local currency It would penalize profits and, everything else being equal, slow the process of increasing inflation, weighing on valuations at the same time.

will-AI-increase-global-growth
02/09/2024 Research / Market

Will Artificial Intelligence increase economic growth?

Recent advances in the development of artificial intelligence (AI) could lead to potentially disruptive changes across a wide range of industries. Will AI significantly increase aggregate economic growth through its impact on labor markets and increases in productivity? And will it enhance the productivity of labor or displaced workers? We believe that it is inevitable that AI will be widely adopted in the long term, and that it will have a positive impact on productivity and economic growth. But while it could be a huge gain for countries where the labor force is projected to decline, investors should be mindful that AI will be disruptive in the short term and will likely adversely affect profitability and returns in a number of sectors.

IT-Cash May Not be King
02/07/2024 Investment Talks

Cash May Not Be King Much Longer

For most of the last year, savers have been earning a reasonable return in cash. But how long can these compelling cash rates last? Historically, the answer has been: not very long. In every rate hike cycle since the 1970s, the US Federal Reserve has "paused at the peak" federal funds rate for a matter of months, not years, and history suggests the rate cuts could begin soon. Furthermore, once the Fed starts cutting its policy rate, cash rates could move hundreds of basis points lower in a very short period of time. We believe rotating from cash into short-term bonds can help investors reduce this reinvestment risk without taking on the full price volatility inherent in longer-duration fixed income exposures.

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