Weekly Market Monitor

A weekly summary of global market activity, including performance of key equity and fixed income indices, currency and commodity information, bond yields and spreads and key economic indicators.

 

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IT-US HY Outlook
04/17/2024 Investment Talks

US High Yield Market Outlook and Positioning

Although first-quarter returns proved to be anemic, at least they were consistent. Across the quarter, monthly returns were positive and spreads moved tighter. With inflation's decline stalling, short-term rate expectations stabilized. Within high yield, Treasury yield increases largely negated the effects of tighter spreads, leading to returns near the index's coupon yield. Although CCCs were the best performers in the US and globally, the US High Yield Distressed Index  (comprised of issuers with spreads over 1000 basis points) underperformed the broader US high yield market, indicating investors were more interested in high-yielding bonds than in potential workouts.

GIV-April 2024
04/08/2024 Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income

The late-cycle environment continues to play out

Stocks are pricing in a rosy scenario in terms of economic growth, which has led to strong upside already this year, with some broadening of the rally evident recently. These movements are further aided by ample liquidity and robust earnings, particularly in the US. The messaging from the Fed and the ECB has been focused on how important it is for inflation to come down for them to reduce rates, even though the debate continues on whether the neutral rate has moved higher.

IT-Bonds Take Center Stage
04/05/2024 Investment Talks

Bonds Take Center Stage

For most of the last year, savers have been earning a reasonable return in cash. But how long can these compelling cash rates last? Historically, the answer has been: not very long. In every rate hike cycle since the 1970s, the US Federal Reserve has “paused at the peak” federal funds rate for a matter of months, not years, and history suggests the rate cuts could begin soon. With history as a guide, we believe investors may benefit from locking in some of today’s historically elevated interest rates by moving out of cash and into short-term bonds.

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