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Tuesday 21 March 2023
March 2023 | In the US, the credit crunch, which is already starting to materialize, will impact growth and will determine how pronounced the recession will be. Amid a weaker economic outlook, the market is reassessing central banks' actions. European banks' earnings growth will still be positive, just less so than previously thought. Concerns about credit crunches in Europe appear excessive amid the strong liquidity profile and capital position of European banks. While we already started the year with a cautious stance in risky assets, we have become increasingly prudent in credit high yield. We have also become more constructive on US duration, as it has started to work again as a diversifier of risk in periods of turmoil.
01 | The economic landing could be harder than initially thought. We already see a tangible deterioration of the US economy, which should fall into a recession in Q2.
02 | Going forward, we think that the European banking system is strong and that current repricing will generate attractive opportunities in credit for the most stable, quality retail banks.
03 | Emerging market assets, which have been the best performers in the recent past, have not been immune to the market volatility, with some widening in hard currency debt spreads.
Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management US (Amundi US) and is as of March 21, 2023. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the author and not necessarily Amundi US and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicative of future results. Amundi Asset Management US is the US business of the Amundi Asset Management group of companies.
The current US debt ceiling was reached in January and the US Treasury warned that it would run out of cash to meet its expenditure commitments around June 1st, although a precise date is impossible to predict. The Republicans’ initial proposal asked for spending cuts to the tune of a 1% limit on the annual growth of nominal government expenditure over the next ten years. This fiscal contraction, along with a tight monetary stance, would be negative for economic growth. However, a default would be even worse for the economy.
Our assessment is that most banks are much better prepared to withstand financial volatility today than they were in 2008-9. As a result of the systematic application of much greater regulatory oversight, US banks have much higher levels of equity capital, better funding and liquidity, less leverage and much lower asset risk. With the potential for stronger supervision and regulation across the sector, we suggest investors carefully select securities from larger, well-capitalized banks with diversified business models and conservative lending strategies.
By incorporating both a fixed income and equity component, equity-linked notes (ELNs) can allow investors to benefit from higher interest rates while also participating in equity market performance. Learn why ELNs can be attractive investments in today’s economic environment.
Before investing, consider the product's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Contact your financial professional or Amundi US for a prospectus or summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully. To obtain a free prospectus or summary prospectus and for information on any Pioneer fund, please download it from our literature section.
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