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A Year of War in Ukraine: Accelerating the Energy Transition and Fragmentation
Wednesday 01 March 2023
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A Year of War in Ukraine: Accelerating the Energy Transition and Fragmentation
March 2023 | In the year since the Ukraine War began, the geopolitical landscape has changed significantly. NATO has re-established itself as the West's foremost defense organization and is expanding as a direct consequence of the conflict, as shown by Sweden and Finland's recent efforts to join. Germany, now one of the biggest defense spenders in Europe, is no longer sitting on the sidelines when it comes to military decision-making. All across the continent, defense spending as a share of GDP has increased significantly. Meanwhile, a surprising number of countries are refusing to condemn Russia and are enjoying new importance on the global stage. Nuclear power and new energy sources are also hot topics.
01 | The West's recent decision to send battle tanks to Ukraine increases the risk of a direct escalation with the West, while the likelihood of a protracted war remains somewhat higher.
02 | As the battle intensifies with a new Russian offensive underway, it is unlikely that either side will decisively gain the upper hand in the near term (4-6 months).
03 | The economic impact on Ukraine has been devastating, with over 5 million people displaced and a collapse in GDP. Estimates of reconstruction costs range from USD $350-$750 billion and are still rising.
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