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Thursday 23 March 2023
March 2023 | Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments confirmed the Fed is very likely close to the peak in its rate cycle, but he clearly did not endorse the rate cuts currently priced into the market. He struck a balanced tone between maintaining financial stability and stressing the Fed's ongoing fight against inflation. He noted that while the Fed did consider a policy pause, recent stability in financial conditions appeared to have tipped the scales in favor of a hike, and he reiterated that the Fed has the tools to address financial stability risks. Overall, he worked hard to alleviate concerns about the safety of deposits, stating the banking system is safe, and well capitalized.
01 | On March 22, the US Federal Reserve hiked the fed funds rate by 25bp to 4.75-5.00%, a level not seen since 2007.
02 | The Fed said it believes that further future tightening will come less from interest rates, and more from tighter credit conditions as the banking system naturally recalibrates after recent challenges to depositor and investor confidence.
03 | We remain cautious and anticipate market volatility since the Fed continues to be data dependent, and are skeptical that the Fed will cut rates as early as June 2023, as expected by implied overnight rates.
Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management US (Amundi US) and is as of March 23, 2023. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the author and not necessarily Amundi US and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicative of future results. Amundi Asset Management US is the US business of the Amundi Asset Management group of companies.
The current US debt ceiling was reached in January and the US Treasury warned that it would run out of cash to meet its expenditure commitments around June 1st, although a precise date is impossible to predict. The Republicans’ initial proposal asked for spending cuts to the tune of a 1% limit on the annual growth of nominal government expenditure over the next ten years. This fiscal contraction, along with a tight monetary stance, would be negative for economic growth. However, a default would be even worse for the economy.
Our assessment is that most banks are much better prepared to withstand financial volatility today than they were in 2008-9. As a result of the systematic application of much greater regulatory oversight, US banks have much higher levels of equity capital, better funding and liquidity, less leverage and much lower asset risk. With the potential for stronger supervision and regulation across the sector, we suggest investors carefully select securities from larger, well-capitalized banks with diversified business models and conservative lending strategies.
By incorporating both a fixed income and equity component, equity-linked notes (ELNs) can allow investors to benefit from higher interest rates while also participating in equity market performance. Learn why ELNs can be attractive investments in today’s economic environment.
Before investing, consider the product's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Contact your financial professional or Amundi US for a prospectus or summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully. To obtain a free prospectus or summary prospectus and for information on any Pioneer fund, please download it from our literature section.
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