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Wednesday 15 May 2024
Investment Talks
May 2024 | Due to factors, including significant stimulus and hopes over artificial intelligence, a handful of the top US stocks are experiencing significantly high valuations. While US investors should continue to have exposure to domestic stocks, the outlook for international stocks appears to be improving. With global valuations unjustifiably low, a potential recession ahead, and top US stocks currently posting excessive valuations, investors may wish to consider expanding the global reach of their portfolios to opportunities in Europe and Asia.
01 | We believe the US economy is positioned to experience a prolonged slowdown and possibly a recession.
02 | US equity markets appear expensive relative to other markets and to their own history.
03 | With inflationary pressures likely to remain higher for longer, investors may be able to benefit from expanding the global reach of their portfolios.
Important Information
Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management as of May 9, 2024 . Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the [author] and not necessarily Amundi Asset Management and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product or service. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Amundi US is the US business of Amundi Asset Management.
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The US Federal Reserve will begin its easing cycle this month, capping a remarkable period of restrictive monetary policy that has not been experienced since the early 1980s. The tighter policy stance has helped cool inflation and moderate economic activity. Now, the Fed hopes to ease off the policy brake in a way that preserves continued disinflationary progress towards its long-term 2% inflation target while also supporting their second mandate of "maximum employment". In this note, we highlight the uniqueness of this monetary policy cycle, how financial markets are anticipating significantly more policy easing than seen in recent easing cycles, and the financial market implications.
Passive strategies have generally have fared well over the past decade, which has made it easy to forget the long periods during which active managers outpaced passive approaches. The reasons we believe market concentration will decline include (1) a shrinking earnings advantage for the top ten companies, and (2) seemingly unsustainably high valuations. We believe investors may benefit from investing with active managers that thoughtfully select their exposure based on the earnings and valuation profile of each stock.
The first debate between US presidential candidates Trump and Harris was a fractious exchange that shed little new light on policy details. Democratic candidate Kamala Harris was deemed to have performed better than her Republican rival Donald Trump, according to snap polls conducted after the debate. This implies that Harris will likely see an extension of the honeymoon period that has dominated since her nomination. While the US election debate was relatively disciplined and covered all the major domestic and foreign policy issues, it was light on the two candidates' policy agendas as both stuck to high-level answers with little in the way of specific measures or details of how they would accomplish their objectives.
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