Investor Account Access
Investor access to Shareowner accounts and Closed End Funds accounts.
Monday 08 May 2023
May 2023 | Investor sentiment is downbeat, but not overly bearish. With tightening credit conditions, our US growth outlook is lower compared to that of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), while we are more optimistic on China. This supports a cautious stance and a search for opportunities across the emerging world. There are some signs of complacency on Europe, while debates were mostly focused on geo-economic fragmentation and the urgency of policy action regarding crisis management and to secure artificial intelligence development.
01 | Our base scenario is largely aligned with the scenario showcased by the International Monetary Fund (IMF): Inflation should prove stickier and stay above central bank targets for longer.
02 | There was a wide consensus about markets currently pricing in too many Fed rate cuts that confirms our positive view on US duration.
03 | Real bond yields are higher than they were before the pandemic, but are likely to return to pre-COVID levels in the medium term, when inflation returns to major central banks' 2% target.
Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management US (Amundi US) and is as of May 08, 2023. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the author and not necessarily Amundi US and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicative of future results. Amundi Asset Management US is the US business of the Amundi Asset Management group of companies.
The recent stress in large parts of the US banking sector is significant—it adds to pressure on funding costs and profitability stemming from the fastest monetary tightening on record as well as the protracted period of an inverted yield curve. These stresses will constrain many banks' ability to lend, and will have a material impact on the outlook. As a result, we are revising our US forecast. We now expect a more protracted recession during the course of 2023 rather than mild weakness.
In Europe, due to high inflation and a fall in household and business confidence, the outlook remains uncertain, with a risk of gas rationing during the winter, which would cause industrial production to fall further. In the short term, the drivers of domestic demand (consumption and investment) have been weakened. High energy prices are weighing on industry, construction, and investment. Meanwhile, inflation is reducing real incomes and real wages are falling despite increases in negotiated wages and a strong labor market.
The economic backdrop foreseen for the next 12 months suggests that the ongoing market correction will continue through the first half of 2023. In the second half of the year, we expect some of the headwinds to abate due to lower price pressures and a hold on interest rate rises. We believe this will support a gradual shift from a defensive stance, with its tilt towards gold, investment grade credit and government bonds, to increased risk exposure through developed market equity and high-quality credit.
Before investing, consider the product's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Contact your financial professional or Amundi US for a prospectus or summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully. To obtain a free prospectus or summary prospectus and for information on any Pioneer fund, please download it from our literature section.
Securities offered through Amundi Distributor US, Inc.
60 State Street, Boston, MA 02109
Underwriter of Pioneer mutual funds, Member SIPC.
Not FDIC insured | May lose value | No bank guarantee Amundi Asset Management US, Inc. Form CRS Amundi Distributor US, Inc. Form CRS