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Global growth has been on a secular decline since around 2000, with a more pronounced decline following the Global Financial Crisis. To explain this, economists typically cite the sizeable and broad-based slowdown in Total Factor Productivity Growth, which measures how efficiently labor and capital inputs are used to produce output. Looking back over longer periods, there were strong advances in productivity after WW2 in the advanced economies in the 1970s to the 90s, but since around 2000, there has been a broad-based slowdown. If these trends continue, global growth over the next decade will likely be sub-3%, compared to just under 4% in the two decades before the pandemic, even before considering recent adverse developments such as global economic fragmentation, increasing security concerns and the transition to net zero. In this paper, we analyze the contributing factors and economic risks.
Second-quarter returns were positive but uncompelling as not offering a premium to cash. Several of the economic indicators we monitor are indicating softer growth may lie ahead. Although we identify multiple positive factors for high yield, valuations are challenging. With spreads tight and the economy likely to slow, we are positioning portfolios defensively in anticipation of spread widening.
In the aftermath of last year's global inflation surge and the subsequent tightening of monetary policies, the economic outlook now looks increasingly fragmented. The US is slowing down, the European Union is gradually recovering, China is in a controlled and policy supported slowdown, and countries such as India are experiencing strong growth. On the inflation side, price pressures are more persistent than expected, but gradually normalizing, allowing major central banks to start cutting rates. We believe investing will require confidence in the search for an asset allocation that can withstand different scenarios, with markets in some areas being priced for the best despite uncertainty stemming from geopolitical risks and the upcoming US elections.
Amundi Funds US Bond*
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Amundi Funds Income Opportunities*
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Amundi Funds US Pioneer Fund
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Amundi Funds US Short Term Bond*
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Amundi Funds Global Equity*
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Amundi Funds US Equity Fundamental Growth*
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*Prior to March 15, 2024, Amundi Funds Pioneer US Bond, Amundi Funds Pioneer Income Opportunities, Amundi Funds Pioneer US Short Term Bond, Amundi Funds Pioneer Global Equity, Amundi Funds Pioneer US Equity Fundamental Growth
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