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72 news articles are available

January Cross Asset
01/06/2023 Cross Asset

A Strained German Economy Can Be Good News For Europe

In Europe, due to high inflation and a fall in household and business confidence, the outlook remains uncertain, with a risk of gas rationing during the winter, which would cause industrial production to fall further. In the short term, the drivers of domestic demand (consumption and investment) have been weakened. High energy prices are weighing on industry, construction, and investment. Meanwhile, inflation is reducing real incomes and real wages are falling despite increases in negotiated wages and a strong labor market.

January GIV
12/20/2022 Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income

Relief Rally Unlikely to Continue

For markets, this economic backdrop calls for a confirmation of a correction regime at the end of 2022 and in H1 2023, with inflation slowing, but still above normal levels. The correction phase will likely be driven by the profit recession, which we expect to materialize in H1. We believe a more cautious stance in equities would be prudent. For government bonds, slowing economic growth and hints about the change in the size of rate hikes may call for an active duration stance.

Stay The Course
12/15/2022 Investment Talks

Fed: Staying the Course Until the Job is Done

The most striking takeaway from the Federal Open Market Committee is the near uniformity among FOMC members that the terminal level for rates will exceed 5%. It appears the lower-than-expected October and November Consumer Price Inflation data was not enough to change members' views. Debt ceiling considerations are likely to make the cash balance that the US Treasury holds at the Fed very volatile, leading to reserve volatility. If it leads to money market disruptions, it would be a sign that the supply of reserves in the system is approaching scarcity and could halt the balance sheet run-off.

Housing Outlook
12/13/2022 Investment Talks

Housing Outlook: We Expect Defaults to Remain Low as Prices Decline

While we are bearish on the outlook for home prices, we are bullish on the outlook for mortgage defaults. Importantly, we do not expect a repeat of the housing crisis of 2008, nor a surge in distressed sales. This is because the vast majority of today’s borrowers have fixed-rate mortgages, and mortgage modifications are heavily prioritized over foreclosure. However, we do expect declines in home prices of roughly 15% over the next three years, with the majority of the decline occurring in 2023.

2023 outlook
12/05/2022 Investment Talks, Fixed income, Equity, Perspectives

Investment Outlook 2023: Some Light for Investors After the Storm

We predict that 2023 will be a two-speed year, with plenty of risks to watch out for. Bonds are back, market valuations are getting more attractive, and a Fed pivot in the first part of the year could trigger interesting entry points. We expect global growth to slow significantly, with several countries across both developed markets and EM suffering stagnation, while others may face a slowdown at best.  

12/02/2022 Perspectives

The Continuing Case for US Value

Today’s investing environment is characterized by higher normalized inflation, higher supply-constrained commodity costs, labor shortages and quantitative tightening. We believe these are  primary conditions for the potential outperformance of value over growth, and that this cycle’s transition has likely only just begun. Furthermore, secular changes of value vs. growth are best measured in quarters, or even years; therefore, we do not see short-term rallies of growth stocks indicative of a larger long-term trend.

December 2022 Cross Asset
11/30/2022 Cross Asset

Defensive Asset Allocation Extends into 2023

The economic backdrop foreseen for the next 12 months suggests that the ongoing market correction will continue through the first half of 2023. In the second half of the year, we expect some of the headwinds to abate due to lower price pressures and a hold on interest rate rises. We believe this will support a gradual shift from a defensive stance, with its tilt towards gold, investment grade credit and government bonds, to increased risk exposure through developed market equity and high-quality credit.