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Thursday 17 January 2019
Amundi US strives to limit and reduce our direct environmental footprint, notably in terms of energy, paper and waste, by adopting eco-responsible practices throughout the company.
We have implemented multiple initiatives to meet that goal.
We have markedly revised up our forecast for US growth, in particular for H1 2024. We continue to expect GDP growth to decelerate below its potential pace over the next few quarters, before recovering in 2025. Regarding inflation, although the downward trend in core consumer price index inflation has recently stalled, we think that the disinflationary process will continue, albeit along a bumpy road with stickier dynamics. The Fed will still be in a position to pivot towards rate cuts and we expect 75 bps of cuts in 2024 (vs 40 bps by markets) as: (1) monetary policy remains restrictive and will become more restrictive as inflation declines; (2) growth will slow down; and (3) recent inflation data have not altered our year-end projections.
Due to factors, including significant stimulus and hopes over artificial intelligence, a handful of the top US stocks are experiencing significantly high valuations. While US investors should continue to have exposure to domestic stocks, the outlook for international stocks appears to be improving. With global valuations unjustifiably low, a potential recession ahead, and top US stocks currently posting excessive valuations, investors may wish to consider expanding the global reach of their portfolios to opportunities in Europe and Asia.
As a structurally uncorrelated source of risk and return, we believe catastrophe bonds and insurance-linked securities (ILS) may permit investors to build more diversified and resilient portfolios. This could be particularly true now, as the rate on line (the ratio of premium paid to loss recoverable in a reinsurance contract) for private ILS formats and the cat bond market spread remain elevated and could provide attractive total yield potential. We believe the combination of continued elevated pricing, combined with the ongoing demand for reinsurance, may present an attractive investment opportunity throughout the remainder of 2024 and into 2025.