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A challenging rate-cut path for central banks
Thursday 08 February 2024
Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income
A challenging rate-cut path for central banks
February 2024 | The strength in the US economy keeps us confident that the Federal Reserve will not begin policy cuts before the end of May, and the European Central Bank will also remain vigilant on disinflation. Sluggish growth expectations going forward mean the emphasis on quality credit and valuations will likely increase. Equities markets are continuing to display acute anomalies relative to the historical norm, with high valuation dispersion between growth and value and an extraordinary concentration in the largest securities. We are prioritizing fundamentals, and exploring strong businesses in Japan and US value sectors.
01 | In the US, wage growth is falling and most of the strength in payrolls was in non-cyclical sectors (government, etc). This could affect consumption, which is strong for now.
02 | We do not foresee a recession in the eurozone, but risks are high. Weak government expenditure is likely to weigh on the economy, but personal consumption and wage growth are positives for the region.
03 | Geopolitics/politics are gaining prominence. Half of global population will elect their leaders this year, and global relations will be affected by the choice of leaders.
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Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management as of February 1, 2024. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the [author] and not necessarily Amundi Asset Management and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product or service. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Amundi US is the US business of Amundi Asset Management.
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Other news
07/01/2024
Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income
Inflation trends, central banks and geopolitics to drive markets
In addition to central banks' policies and inflation trends, we believe domestic politics and their impact on international relations will be important determinants of financial markets and economic direction. Our economic outlook is relatively robust, but valuations are tight in some areas of risk assets, allowing us to stay slightly positive on equities overall. However, we reduced our stance slightly in developed market equities and believe investors should consider building protection in some areas here. In bonds, we are constructive on US duration and core Europe, while we maintain our cautious stance on Japan. In corporate credit, EU investment grade is our favorite area.
06/03/2024
Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income
Explore the broadening of the rally with Europe
In developed markets, we move to neutral from positive on Japan and we see scope for rebalancing in favor of the UK, European small caps and the US. While the US is displaying strong earnings, we believe Europe should benefit from the moderately resilient economic environment and rate cuts. In government bonds, we are positive on the US and core Europe, along with Italy. In credit, valuations in Euro investment grade appear attractive. We also look for selective opportunities across emerging markets and see oil as providing protection from geopolitical risks.
05/08/2024
Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income
Searching for bright spots in a trickier phase
Recent inflation and growth data from the US indicates continued strength in the economy, leading Amundi and various institutions including the International Monetary Fund, to revise US growth forecasts upward. We believe current strong momentum will continue into Q2, but expect a deceleration in H2. Inflation data also points to stickier prices, with upside risks, especially around oil, from the recent geopolitical escalation, opening a difficult phase for central banks. We expect fewer rate cuts but higher uncertainty around policy actions.
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