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Crisis Memories Return in Vulnerable Markets
Friday 31 March 2023
Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income
Crisis Memories Return in Vulnerable Markets
April 2023 | March brought a wake-up call to markets after a complacent start to the year. The trigger was the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and other US regional banks, followed by that of Credit Suisse in Europe. The repricing of core yields and changes to market expectations regarding central bank actions have been massive in both the US and Europe. Bond volatility reached the highest levels since the Great Financial Crisis, while equity volatility also spiked, but to a lesser extent.
01 | Amundi Institute Insights: The repricing of core yields and changes to market expectations regarding central bank actions have been massive in both the US and Europe.
02 | Fixed Income: We suggest investors actively explore bonds, particularly US government bonds, to provide some stability to their portfolios at a time of tightening financial conditions in the markets and for lending standards.
03 | Equity: Investors can consider focusing on companies with strong balance sheets in the quality and value spaces. In these areas, we look at earnings potential of businesses with operational efficiencies.
Important Information
Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management US (Amundi US) and is as of March 31, 2023. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the author and not necessarily Amundi US and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicative of future results. Amundi Asset Management US is the US business of the Amundi Asset Management group of companies.
Other news
04/08/2024
Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income
The late-cycle environment continues to play out
Stocks are pricing in a rosy scenario in terms of economic growth, which has led to strong upside already this year, with some broadening of the rally evident recently. These movements are further aided by ample liquidity and robust earnings, particularly in the US. The messaging from the Fed and the ECB has been focused on how important it is for inflation to come down for them to reduce rates, even though the debate continues on whether the neutral rate has moved higher.
03/04/2024
Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income
Markets, economy and valuations: debate rages on
We believe valuations are excessive in some segments, such as mega-caps, where profit margins are also high. But the key question is whether these high margins justify current valuations? And will these companies be able to grow their top line quickly, while maintaining margins in a context of increased global competition and exhausted consumers? On the other hand, judging the direction of the economy is becoming increasingly difficult.
02/08/2024
Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income
A challenging rate-cut path for central banks
The strength in the US economy keeps us confident that the Federal Reserve will not begin policy cuts before the end of May, and the European Central Bank will also remain vigilant on disinflation. Sluggish growth expectations going forward mean the emphasis on quality credit and valuations will likely increase. Equities markets are continuing to display acute anomalies relative to the historical norm, with high valuation dispersion between growth and value and an extraordinary concentration in the largest securities. We are prioritizing fundamentals, and exploring strong businesses in Japan and US value sectors.
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