Look out for growth, but with an eye on inflation

Wednesday 25 October 2023

Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income

   

Look out for growth, but with an eye on inflation

November 2023 | Economic deceleration and ambiguity over monetary policy are collectively increasing complexity across markets. This is not a time to take bold risks; instead, we believe investors should stick to their long-term convictions around duration in the US and Europe. In addition, current uncertainty on US inflation strengthens the case for enhancing safeguards. We believe oil offers additional protection and diversification from the recent increase in geopolitical risks.

01 |  We continue to expect a mild US recession in H1. Higher-for-longer rates and tight financial conditions keep us concerned about the global economic outlook.

02 | In this environment, we believe avoiding losers is as important as picking winners; even good businesses trading at expensive valuations offer little protection in times of economic downturn.

03 | We are cautious on the cyclical parts of industrials, but are leaning toward businesses linked with long-term secular trends such as electrification, near-shoring/re-shoring and automation.

Look out for growth, but with an eye on inflation

Important Information

Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management as of October 25, 2023. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the [author] and not necessarily Amundi Asset Management and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product or service. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Amundi US is the US business of Amundi Asset Management.

RO ID# 3203558
©2023 Amundi Asset Management

Other news

June 2024 GIV
06/03/2024 Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income

Explore the broadening of the rally with Europe

In developed markets, we move to neutral from positive on Japan and we see scope for rebalancing in favor of the UK, European small caps and the US. While the US is displaying strong earnings, we believe Europe should benefit from the moderately resilient economic environment and rate cuts. In government bonds, we are positive on the US and core Europe, along with Italy. In credit, valuations in Euro investment grade appear attractive. We also look for selective opportunities across emerging markets and see oil as providing protection from geopolitical risks.

May 2024 GIV
05/08/2024 Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income

Searching for bright spots in a trickier phase

Recent inflation and growth data from the US indicates continued strength in the economy, leading Amundi and various institutions including the International Monetary Fund, to revise US growth forecasts upward. We believe current strong momentum will continue into Q2, but expect a deceleration in H2. Inflation data also points to stickier prices, with upside risks, especially around oil, from the recent geopolitical escalation, opening a difficult phase for central banks. We expect fewer rate cuts but higher uncertainty around policy actions.

GIV-April 2024
04/08/2024 Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income

The late-cycle environment continues to play out

Stocks are pricing in a rosy scenario in terms of economic growth, which has led to strong upside already this year, with some broadening of the rally evident recently. These movements are further aided by ample liquidity and robust earnings, particularly in the US. The messaging from the Fed and the ECB has been focused on how important it is for inflation to come down for them to reduce rates, even though the debate continues on whether the neutral rate has moved higher.

Before investing, consider the product's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Contact your financial professional or Amundi US for a prospectus or summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully. To obtain a free prospectus or summary prospectus and for information on any Pioneer fund, please download it from our  literature section.

Securities offered through Amundi Distributor US, Inc.
60 State Street, Boston, MA 02109
Underwriter of Pioneer mutual funds, Member   SIPC.   

Not FDIC insured | May lose value | No bank guarantee Amundi Asset Management US, Inc.  Form CRS         Amundi Distributor US, Inc.  Form CRS