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Tuesday 02 May 2023
Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income
May 2023 | We see a deteriorating US economic environment amid the Fed's slowing monetary tightening, rising costs of credit for the real economy, and stubborn core inflation, particularly in Europe. A weak US economy is unlikely to leave Europe untouched. Thus, we suggest maintaining a cautious tilt on risk assets, strengthening hedges, and utilizing the safe haven characteristics of US Treasuries. On the last issue, the Fed is close to the end of its tightening cycle and this may create opportunities in the medium term range of the yield curve.
01 | The broader equity markets have digested the March turmoil, but the disruption continues to be evident in the US regional banking sector, which is not showing signs of recovery.
02 | While we do not see systemic issues, tightening financial conditions are increasing risks to the downside that are not priced into risky assets.
03 | We expect a weak global growth outlook, with a US recession, a weak outlook in Europe, and a rebound in Asia from China's reopening that will not be able to offset US deceleration.
Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management US (Amundi US) and is as of April 27, 2023. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the author and not necessarily Amundi US and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicative of future results. Amundi Asset Management US is the US business of the Amundi Asset Management group of companies.
The strength in the US economy keeps us confident that the Federal Reserve will not begin policy cuts before the end of May, and the European Central Bank will also remain vigilant on disinflation. Sluggish growth expectations going forward mean the emphasis on quality credit and valuations will likely increase. Equities markets are continuing to display acute anomalies relative to the historical norm, with high valuation dispersion between growth and value and an extraordinary concentration in the largest securities. We are prioritizing fundamentals, and exploring strong businesses in Japan and US value sectors.
The rapid retreat in fixed income yields caused by falling inflation and dovish central banks has affected valuations, but bonds are still a good diversifier as we enter a slowdown. However, we may see some uptick in yields (owing to inflation). The recent equities rally is largely based on easing financial conditions and expectations of a soft or no landing next year. There is a disconnect between valuations in some segments and their earnings potential, which raises risks of deratings.
The past month saw a recovery in risk assets on the back of continuing disinflation and indications that the Fed is close to peak rates, leading US and European yields to retreat. We aim to balance our long-term convictions (for example, positive on duration) with tactical opportunities across asset classes and strengthening of hedges. Hence, we keep a cautious stance on developed market equities, but we acknowledge potential for a marginal upside.
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Securities offered through Amundi Distributor US, Inc.
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Underwriter of Pioneer mutual funds, Member SIPC.